Just over a week ago congress passed and President Obama signed a bill to raise the debt ceiling of the USA. In the debate leading up to Tuesday we heard many stories on what was going to happen if the debt ceiling was not passed. It has been 8 days now, so lets look at some of them and what has happened.
The biggest one spread all over was if the debt ceiling was not raised the stock market and economy was going to tank. Lets look what happened in 6 days of trading since. Five of those six days the stock market has not just closed down but 100s of point a day. Wonder what it would have been if this was the good?
We heard from commentators and politicians that if we did not raise the debt limit that the AAA rating the USA had would fall. Notice I used the word had. It fell on Friday when S&P cut it. If you had listened to the rating organizations they were not threatening to cut because debt ceiling was being hit, but that we have possibly out borrowed our ability to pay our bills. So one agency did cut and the others put out stronger language that a cut is possibly imminent.
We heard the economy would fall apart. Now we have heard all week that the risks of another recession (called a double dip) is now rated as about 25% possible by economists, much higher than before.
We heard that interest rates would go thru the roof if we did not raise the ceiling because we would lose the AAA rating. Well we lost the AAA rating and we find people and institutions are doing like always when stock market goes bonkers and buying gold and US Treasuries which has run the rate down
What do we need to do now? Get the federal spending in control. First that means actually doing a budget. (ask anyone who counsels individuals with debt problems and this is step 1). Second we need to pass real spending cuts but spending cuts that will take place in 5 or 10 years. Cuts now will take effect. Cuts in 5 or 10 years will be ignored by Congress and the President then. Look at cuts that were put in some medical programs on payments to medical providers but were to start a year or two down the road. Each year congress votes to kick the can down the road and to delay implementation. It does no good for me to say that I am going to reduce my budget in 2012 or lose 40 pounds in 2012 now. When 2012 gets here I will say lets just wait to 2013. Congress is the same.
The choices are cutting spending and raising taxes. We need to look at what the government needs to do and start cutting wants to do or would be nice to do. It needs to be real cuts now. We need to look at our tax structure and simplify it. We can probably get more revenue from it by cutting the different deductions (called loopholes when someone else uses it) and cut rates at the same time. Make it more fair. We hear Social Security is headed fro going broke and what did our leaders do. This year they cut payroll taxes, which are individuals contributions to Social Security and now I hear they want to keep the cut. If you are not collecting enough to make it solvent how does cutting amount you collect help, This is not part of the normal cut tax rates and we will get more. That argument is if we reduce the tax rate people will produce more to earn more. This was simply a case of cut the payroll taxes to give people more money. The group that most vocally passed the payroll tax cut are anti tax cutters.
Now the good news. Since we raised the debt ceiling oil prices (September futures) and wholesale gas prices (September futures have fallen about 15% to around $80 a barrel.
The deficit and debt crisis is real and we must get them under control.
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Sunday, July 31, 2011
Debt Limit
The debt limit debate continues today with possibilities of agreement today (Sunday).
Couple of things to consider on all you have been hearing on the debt limit.
First we keep hearing the dollar will decline and interest rates will go up if the ceiling is not raised. Has anyone noticed that for 3 years the dollar has gone down? It will probably continue to fall some in future particularly if the US government does not control the deficit spending.
In 2002-2007 the deficit ran 250-400 billion annually. Since 2007 it has been over a trillion dollars. This was supposed to be a one year increase in FY 2009 but here we are in 2011 and headed to 1.4 trillion.
Pay attention to deficit and debt. The debt is how much does the US owe. The deficit is how much more are we spending in a year than we take in. They are different although many stories and people mix them
Interest rates will rise whether the debt limit is raised or not. The Federal Reserve has had the benchmarks at about zero now for several years to try to encourage growth. Many of us are concerned this will cause hyper inflation. Somewhere in the near future the Federal Reserve will begin raising the interest rate benchmarks.
Why is it that when congress and the president talk about budget/deficit reductions they can only talk in goals fro 10 years and not how much to cut now. It is like me saying that I will cut my gasoline usage over the next ten years instead of talking about now. We can talk on that but unlikely when then gets here we will do it.
The credit rating of the united states is not being threatened by the debt limit being met. The rating agencies are concerned the US has gotten to much debt. Raising the debt limit will not prevent them cutting the rating. Cutting the deficit will.
Congress and the president are the only organization I know that decides how much they can borrow. If I decided to raise my debt limit ceiling to one million dollars and went in the bank tomorrow do you think my friendly bankers would tell me they are glad to loan me one million dollars since I raised my debt limit ceiling to that? No they would sit there and go that is a good joke you came in and told us today Dwight, have a good day.
Couple of things to consider on all you have been hearing on the debt limit.
First we keep hearing the dollar will decline and interest rates will go up if the ceiling is not raised. Has anyone noticed that for 3 years the dollar has gone down? It will probably continue to fall some in future particularly if the US government does not control the deficit spending.
In 2002-2007 the deficit ran 250-400 billion annually. Since 2007 it has been over a trillion dollars. This was supposed to be a one year increase in FY 2009 but here we are in 2011 and headed to 1.4 trillion.
Pay attention to deficit and debt. The debt is how much does the US owe. The deficit is how much more are we spending in a year than we take in. They are different although many stories and people mix them
Interest rates will rise whether the debt limit is raised or not. The Federal Reserve has had the benchmarks at about zero now for several years to try to encourage growth. Many of us are concerned this will cause hyper inflation. Somewhere in the near future the Federal Reserve will begin raising the interest rate benchmarks.
Why is it that when congress and the president talk about budget/deficit reductions they can only talk in goals fro 10 years and not how much to cut now. It is like me saying that I will cut my gasoline usage over the next ten years instead of talking about now. We can talk on that but unlikely when then gets here we will do it.
The credit rating of the united states is not being threatened by the debt limit being met. The rating agencies are concerned the US has gotten to much debt. Raising the debt limit will not prevent them cutting the rating. Cutting the deficit will.
Congress and the president are the only organization I know that decides how much they can borrow. If I decided to raise my debt limit ceiling to one million dollars and went in the bank tomorrow do you think my friendly bankers would tell me they are glad to loan me one million dollars since I raised my debt limit ceiling to that? No they would sit there and go that is a good joke you came in and told us today Dwight, have a good day.
Saturday, June 18, 2011
IBM celebrates 100 years
Today, June 16, 2011 , IBM celebrated its 100th birthday.
IBM has been a leader in technology for over 100 years. From being a leader in punched card technology, to original computers, to the various components to major breakthroughs in the 60s to the first large scale use personal computer in the 1980s to other machines like the AS/400 and the ATM and the self checkout register at the grocery store to over 5000 new patents in just a recent time period.
IBM for most of that time has been considered the benchmark of technology although it has had its ups and downs. Well known for the dress code of the 60s and 70s and into 80s of long sleeve white shirt, dark tie and dark pants and coat. A relaxed code today.
However IBM goes before June 16, 1911 . That was the day that several companies merged (Computing Tabulating Recording Company was the resultant name) and made what became IBM in 1924. In 1924 the company was renamed to IBM (Internation Business Machines) In 1911 when the merger of several companies took place one was a business machine company who had the roots in punched cards. A number of computer companies we know today or did up to the late 1990s trace back to then with punched cards and adding machines. Burroughs and NCR to name two.
Tabulating Machine Company was the company on working with punched cards. It was founded by Herman Hollerith in 1896 after he had invented the punched card (80 column and the size of punched cards used until recently, which was the size of the dollar bill then, yes the dollar really is not as big as it used to be)while working for the census bureau in 1887 to do the census in 1890 as it had been by hand until then and was expected to take more than 10 years to compile the data. He also made the original card punch and reader. He had left the government and created a business for his invention.
So although IBM traces their 100 years to 1911 and had a major birthday today, it really is an older company and is really 115 years old.
Happy 100th or 115th birthday and hop you continue to lead in finding new technology to improve the world.
IBM has been a leader in technology for over 100 years. From being a leader in punched card technology, to original computers, to the various components to major breakthroughs in the 60s to the first large scale use personal computer in the 1980s to other machines like the AS/400 and the ATM and the self checkout register at the grocery store to over 5000 new patents in just a recent time period.
IBM for most of that time has been considered the benchmark of technology although it has had its ups and downs. Well known for the dress code of the 60s and 70s and into 80s of long sleeve white shirt, dark tie and dark pants and coat. A relaxed code today.
However IBM goes before June 16, 1911 . That was the day that several companies merged (Computing Tabulating Recording Company was the resultant name) and made what became IBM in 1924. In 1924 the company was renamed to IBM (Internation Business Machines) In 1911 when the merger of several companies took place one was a business machine company who had the roots in punched cards. A number of computer companies we know today or did up to the late 1990s trace back to then with punched cards and adding machines. Burroughs and NCR to name two.
Tabulating Machine Company was the company on working with punched cards. It was founded by Herman Hollerith in 1896 after he had invented the punched card (80 column and the size of punched cards used until recently, which was the size of the dollar bill then, yes the dollar really is not as big as it used to be)while working for the census bureau in 1887 to do the census in 1890 as it had been by hand until then and was expected to take more than 10 years to compile the data. He also made the original card punch and reader. He had left the government and created a business for his invention.
So although IBM traces their 100 years to 1911 and had a major birthday today, it really is an older company and is really 115 years old.
Happy 100th or 115th birthday and hop you continue to lead in finding new technology to improve the world.
Monday, January 10, 2011
Observations on various stuff (Watt Thoughts)
Observations from recent events
During the holidays Walmart sold small round bottles of Coke looking line ornaments. They had them in large display boxes with a large picture of the bottle on each side. On one of the panels it stated in large letters that "Can contains 140 calories". Two problems: 1. it was a bottle not a can even in illustration and 2. the bottles themselves said contained 160 calories.
We have been hearing that the Social Security system is going broke so what does Congress do before Christmas but cut the contribution rate by employees about 30% (2 point reduction in the rate from just over 6% to just over 4%. No arguments like income tax cuts that this would cause more people to contribute more money to SS but just reduced income for a year. Sure way to bring a system back in balance that is losing money.
One of the ads fro the drugs on TV always catches my attention. The ad says if you are a loved one have suffered death or other things while taking it you may be entitled to a settlement. I am glad that i don't work for their call centers. It would be scary when people who have suffered death start calling.
Wasn't it odd the tax bill in December. They claimed it extended unemployment benefits and cut income taxes. The truth was it kept income tax rates the same as fro last 10 years and it allowed people to collect the same number of weeks of benefits as had been occurring. Both were expiring.
Dwight
During the holidays Walmart sold small round bottles of Coke looking line ornaments. They had them in large display boxes with a large picture of the bottle on each side. On one of the panels it stated in large letters that "Can contains 140 calories". Two problems: 1. it was a bottle not a can even in illustration and 2. the bottles themselves said contained 160 calories.
We have been hearing that the Social Security system is going broke so what does Congress do before Christmas but cut the contribution rate by employees about 30% (2 point reduction in the rate from just over 6% to just over 4%. No arguments like income tax cuts that this would cause more people to contribute more money to SS but just reduced income for a year. Sure way to bring a system back in balance that is losing money.
One of the ads fro the drugs on TV always catches my attention. The ad says if you are a loved one have suffered death or other things while taking it you may be entitled to a settlement. I am glad that i don't work for their call centers. It would be scary when people who have suffered death start calling.
Wasn't it odd the tax bill in December. They claimed it extended unemployment benefits and cut income taxes. The truth was it kept income tax rates the same as fro last 10 years and it allowed people to collect the same number of weeks of benefits as had been occurring. Both were expiring.
Dwight
Saturday, December 18, 2010
Mid-west travel observations
Mid-west travel observations (Watt Thoughts #224)
During my travels to Kansas this summer I had several observations. First was the area in eastern Kansas was a little hillier than I remember from 30 years ago, but still relatively flat. It was fun seeing the area where the book about a character named Dwight Watt is coming out in the near future written and published by a couple of guys in Kansas. (I have no association with that book, the author had created the name Dwight Watt, but I am looking forward to reading it)
In Kansas I encountered a number of roundabouts which are being discussed in other areas of the country. They are traffic circles that we used to have in the cities but discontinued in many places in 1960s and 1970s although these were smaller. Traffic yields entering to traffic in roundabout but mean you often do not have to stop for a left turn and going across at intersection not having to wait clearance both ways. No waste of gas sitting at red light and no other traffic around. The last was a reason right turn on red was universally adopted in the USA in the early 1970s.
In Missouri they have some very interesting sinks in the rest stops. First thing was I had to look carefully to spot the sinks in the rest room as they were in the wall not extending out. The next was relative easy that the soap was automatically supplied and the water turned on when extended hand in the fixture. Then I looked around for paper towels or driers and did not see one and realized I had felt air when removing my hands. Leaving my hands in the enclosure withdrawing slower caused the drier to work and I had clean dry hands. I have driven all over the United States and this was a unique rest room experience.
Dwight
During my travels to Kansas this summer I had several observations. First was the area in eastern Kansas was a little hillier than I remember from 30 years ago, but still relatively flat. It was fun seeing the area where the book about a character named Dwight Watt is coming out in the near future written and published by a couple of guys in Kansas. (I have no association with that book, the author had created the name Dwight Watt, but I am looking forward to reading it)
In Kansas I encountered a number of roundabouts which are being discussed in other areas of the country. They are traffic circles that we used to have in the cities but discontinued in many places in 1960s and 1970s although these were smaller. Traffic yields entering to traffic in roundabout but mean you often do not have to stop for a left turn and going across at intersection not having to wait clearance both ways. No waste of gas sitting at red light and no other traffic around. The last was a reason right turn on red was universally adopted in the USA in the early 1970s.
In Missouri they have some very interesting sinks in the rest stops. First thing was I had to look carefully to spot the sinks in the rest room as they were in the wall not extending out. The next was relative easy that the soap was automatically supplied and the water turned on when extended hand in the fixture. Then I looked around for paper towels or driers and did not see one and realized I had felt air when removing my hands. Leaving my hands in the enclosure withdrawing slower caused the drier to work and I had clean dry hands. I have driven all over the United States and this was a unique rest room experience.
Dwight
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Obama's veto part 2
The bill that was passed unanimously was changing requirements on where papers had to be signed and notarized for foreclosures. I am not really sure my opinion on the bill. I was just commenting on the odd processes occurring in DC.
The bill allows electronically notarized documents and documents notarized in a different state than filing in the foreclosure process. Electronic signatures (and I had not heard of electronic notarizing, wonder if my uncle who is a notary and does not use a computer knows about it) raise questions to many people. I would have thought a duly notarized document in one state would be recognized in another state, i.e. interstate commerce. The concerns are that it will make it easier to and quicker to foreclose and whether documents were legitimate. Questions we need to consider but I still find it odd that the House had passed it twice before and then it made unanimously in the Senate this fall and had passed the House on a voice vote in the spring and no one had thought of concerns until Obama. There seems to be agreement that some type way needs to be found to accept notarized documents across state lines. Apparently you can use non-embossed from out of state in some states and others say it can only be embossed from anywhere and no agreement on that, much less using electronic notarizing. Hopefully they can find way where notarized documents are known to be done right and usable across state line but also that the documents really were signed by the person signing it. There is no way I can think of that we can really make people have really read before signing and know if info is really right they signed. That is what courts often have to decide whether the document is is truthful.
Further consideration of the bill is needed, but a real veto would have been more straight forward, not try to slip a pocket veto, and our representatives who are now saying it needs refining should have thought more before voting. It remains hard to believe though that it managed to go thru Senate unanimously, I am not really sure we could pass a bill unanimously there that the sun rose this morning.
Dwight
The bill allows electronically notarized documents and documents notarized in a different state than filing in the foreclosure process. Electronic signatures (and I had not heard of electronic notarizing, wonder if my uncle who is a notary and does not use a computer knows about it) raise questions to many people. I would have thought a duly notarized document in one state would be recognized in another state, i.e. interstate commerce. The concerns are that it will make it easier to and quicker to foreclose and whether documents were legitimate. Questions we need to consider but I still find it odd that the House had passed it twice before and then it made unanimously in the Senate this fall and had passed the House on a voice vote in the spring and no one had thought of concerns until Obama. There seems to be agreement that some type way needs to be found to accept notarized documents across state lines. Apparently you can use non-embossed from out of state in some states and others say it can only be embossed from anywhere and no agreement on that, much less using electronic notarizing. Hopefully they can find way where notarized documents are known to be done right and usable across state line but also that the documents really were signed by the person signing it. There is no way I can think of that we can really make people have really read before signing and know if info is really right they signed. That is what courts often have to decide whether the document is is truthful.
Further consideration of the bill is needed, but a real veto would have been more straight forward, not try to slip a pocket veto, and our representatives who are now saying it needs refining should have thought more before voting. It remains hard to believe though that it managed to go thru Senate unanimously, I am not really sure we could pass a bill unanimously there that the sun rose this morning.
Dwight
Last Week’s Veto by Obama (Watt Thoughts)
Last Week’s Veto by Obama (Watt Thoughts)
The party of no combined with the Democrats to unanimously pass a bill and the guy up the street who says that the party of no is blocking anything from being done in DC vetoed it. Yes that is correct the House and Senate unanimously (meaning all Democrats, Republicans and Independents (and anyone else I missed) all voted for it) and the president vetoed it because they may not have thought about the ramifications. I have no question that some did not, but I doubt 533 of them did not and one man living up the street did.
This is the same White House that the Attorney General works for and the Attorney General blamed congress for being opposed to the president and not doing anything about immigration. He failed to apparently remember that he is a Democrat and the Democrats have large majorities in Congress and normally when you campaign against Congress you are campaigning against a Congress held by the opposite party or the opposite party is almost exactly same number, not when your party is fully in control since you were appointed Attorney General with the new president taking office. Odd that the Democratic attorney general would be advocating the American people elect a Republican Congress. This is much worse than Gibbs (White House press secretary) telling the press that it is likely the Democrats will lose a number of seats in Congress in a couple months when there was already general agreement that will occur.
Odd also that the controversy whether Obama can veto this bill about foreclosures the way he did. He announced he is using a pocket veto and that can only be used when Congress is in recess, and the Senate has pointed out they made sure they were not going in recess. Reason is to block recess appointments and that was an action agreed on by the Republicans and Democrats, a bipartisan maneuver to stop the presidential powers.
The Republicans may not be the party of no after all, it is beginning to look like Obama has finally achieved one of the items he said he was going to do and that was bipartisanship in Congress. We appear to be having it occurring but it is not what Obama had intended, but bipartisanship against the president.
Dwight
The party of no combined with the Democrats to unanimously pass a bill and the guy up the street who says that the party of no is blocking anything from being done in DC vetoed it. Yes that is correct the House and Senate unanimously (meaning all Democrats, Republicans and Independents (and anyone else I missed) all voted for it) and the president vetoed it because they may not have thought about the ramifications. I have no question that some did not, but I doubt 533 of them did not and one man living up the street did.
This is the same White House that the Attorney General works for and the Attorney General blamed congress for being opposed to the president and not doing anything about immigration. He failed to apparently remember that he is a Democrat and the Democrats have large majorities in Congress and normally when you campaign against Congress you are campaigning against a Congress held by the opposite party or the opposite party is almost exactly same number, not when your party is fully in control since you were appointed Attorney General with the new president taking office. Odd that the Democratic attorney general would be advocating the American people elect a Republican Congress. This is much worse than Gibbs (White House press secretary) telling the press that it is likely the Democrats will lose a number of seats in Congress in a couple months when there was already general agreement that will occur.
Odd also that the controversy whether Obama can veto this bill about foreclosures the way he did. He announced he is using a pocket veto and that can only be used when Congress is in recess, and the Senate has pointed out they made sure they were not going in recess. Reason is to block recess appointments and that was an action agreed on by the Republicans and Democrats, a bipartisan maneuver to stop the presidential powers.
The Republicans may not be the party of no after all, it is beginning to look like Obama has finally achieved one of the items he said he was going to do and that was bipartisanship in Congress. We appear to be having it occurring but it is not what Obama had intended, but bipartisanship against the president.
Dwight
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