Tuesday, November 6, 2012
What to expect today in election
This election seems to have many parallels to twp previous elections, 1980 and 2000. Up until the debates it appeared ti be Obama's to lose, since then it has changed. An incumbent who is either just leading in the margin of error in the polls or not leading is a good indication that the incumbent will lose. The polls fro several weeks now have shown neck and neck. In 1980 Carter was leading up until the debates and was still \very close in polls to the election. Yet Reagan came in at last minute and trounced Carter in electoral college. I think this election has headed the same and is very likely to be the same by time we go to bed tonight. In another close election in 2000 Gore won the popular vote and Bush won the electoral college. It is possible with the closeness that tonight could turn out the same \way but with the parties reversed. I am quite confident that if that happens we will not hear fro next four years from the democrats that Obama is not a legitimate president as they claimed (and some still claim) on Bush. However I think is is unlikely. I do not expect electoral college to change as it was put there for small states and they would block a constitutional amendment. However we may see more states move like Nebraska and Main and distribute electoral college votes by popular vote. It is the individual states who decide how the members of electoral college are chosen. Until now it is winner take all in most states. Th third possibility as we have seen the states that were toss-ups increase and some move from Obama to undecided we could end up in a tie and this would lead to probably the most awkward outcome since we switched from electing a president and #2 in balloting was vice president (which did not work well). Then the House will elect the president (since Republican controlled and 1 vote per state Romney would win) an the Senate will elect the vice president and since Democratic controlled Biden would win. That would be interesting watching them work together. I expect the House to stay Republican controlled and the Senate will be narrowly controlled by Republicans. In local races here in NW Georgia it has been interesting with a strong write-in campaign for the commissioner of Walker County (even covered by Wall Street Journal, the night I helped run political forum they had a reporter at it) and write-in for sheriff in Catoosa County. The sheriffs races I expect to won in both counties by the Republicans. In Walker I think Campbell will come close on write-in but will fall short as many will not do a write-in. If you have not voted I encourage you to go vote. I early voted a few weeks ago. If you do not vote you don't have much right to complain about what the politicians do as you had opportunity to help decide. If you vote and decide person you voted for is doing lousy you participated and you can tell people what they do wrong (and right) complain about them, just as if person who won was not who you voted for you can say they are doing wrong and right. As Americans we get to decide who our government is as opposed to many parts of the world.